No trades this session — the work was on the machine itself. A full audit of every trigger level against current market prices found one that had quietly died: the KOSPI trim trigger still read “below 6,600 × 3 sessions,” a level set in April when the index traded near post-tariff-shock lows around 5,600–5,800. KOSPI has since rallied roughly 50% to record territory near 8,400–8,800 — the old line was a crash condition masquerading as a monitoring trigger, dead for months without detection. It is now recalibrated to −15% from the 20-session closing high × 3 consecutive sessions, mirroring the Ibovespa logic, and the general lesson is written into the protocol: no absolute price levels, ever — only percentage bands and drawdowns from rolling references. The same session added Part 17, four institutional portfolio-protection rules ([v5-24]–[v5-27]), and wired the first of them — high-water-mark drawdown monitoring — live onto the portfolio page. Timely: today’s tape is exactly the kind the new KOSPI trigger is built to watch, with the index −4% on Samsung −6% and SK Hynix −8% after Broadcom’s soft AI-chip guidance. Far from the line. The May jobs report prints at 14:30 CET.
Three protocol locations read “KOSPI below 6,600 × 3 → trim EWY to 13%.” Set in April 2026 against post-tariff-shock lows, the level became a −21 to −25% drawdown condition once KOSPI rallied to records — effectively dead for months without detection. The [v5-19] data table checks current values but never asked whether the trigger lines themselves were still calibrated. KOSPI was the only trigger anchored to a fixed price; every other uses % bands (BRL R$4.90–5.80) or % drawdowns (Ibovespa −15% from ATH).
New trigger: KOSPI falls ≥15% from its 20-session closing high × 3 consecutive sessions → trim EWY to 13%, mirroring the Ibovespa/EWZ logic exactly. Updated in all three protocol locations and on the portfolio page’s EWY card, which now computes the drawdown from a rolling high instead of comparing against a fixed dollar level. General lesson, now codified: all triggers are expressed as % drawdowns or % bands from rolling references — never fixed levels. Every other trigger was audited against current prices and confirmed correctly calibrated.
Every existing trigger watches one position or one signal. Part 17 operates a level up — portfolio-wide rules that fire regardless of regime state, majority vote, or conviction. The failure mode they close: a correlated selloff in which nothing individually crosses a sleeve trigger while the book bleeds.
The live portfolio page now opens its trigger grid with two new cards. Drawdown vs 30D HWM reads the snapshot record, finds the rolling 30-day high-water mark, and scores the live book against the full [v5-24] ladder — green below 5%, amber 5–8%, red at the 8% mandatory-session line and beyond. BIL Liquidity Floor reads the declared regime state and checks the live BIL weight against its floor (Chop = 15%; auto-overridden to 25% if the drawdown trigger is active). Current readings: ~0% drawdown — the book sits at its high — and BIL at 21% vs the 15% floor. The EWY card was rebuilt the same day with the corrected rolling-high logic. One operational consequence: the snapshot discipline in the [v5-23] close checklist is now load-bearing — a session without a saved snapshot is a gap in the high-water-mark record.
This was not a full [v5-19] regime run — no dashboard pull, no votes, no reallocation. Triage values below with sources and as-of times; dashboard-derived series (VRP, SKEW, term structure) are declared carried from June 2.
| Input | Value | As of / source | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ~7,586 | Thu Jun 4 close · CNBC/TradingEconomics | +0.4% Thu; −0.3% from Jun 2 record 7,609.78. Dow record; Nasdaq −0.1% on Broadcom −12.6% |
| VIX | 15.48 | Jun 4 intraday · Schwab | Green, well under 18 |
| Real yield | 2.07% | FRED DFII10 auto · last verified Jun 4 | [v5-1] trim done; full-exit line 2.50% is ~0.43 away. Markets pricing 85% odds of a Fed hike by year-end |
| Oil | WTI $92.9 · Brent ~$94.7 | Jun 5 · Investing.com | −4%/−3.2% Thu on Israel-Lebanon ceasefire; under the ±5% protocol threshold |
| USD/BRL | R$5.04 | Jun 5 spot · Investing.com | Amber band; 0.46 from R$5.50 trim, 0.14 from R$4.90 add — no proximity flag |
| USD/JPY | 159.9 | Jun 5 AM · session log | Zone 3 Amber active — no adds TQQQ/IBIT; 5.1 from the 165 hard-action line |
| KOSPI | −4% today | Jun 5 · session log | Samsung −6%, SK Hynix −8% echoing Broadcom; new −15%×3 trigger far from firing |
| Geopolitics | Improving, fragile | Jun 4-5 · CNBC/Reuters | Israel-Lebanon ceasefire signed Jun 4; Trump open to meeting Khamenei; US-Iran ceasefire holds, month 4 |
Brazil Rule add line — 23% of the R$4.90–5.50 band. Closest amplify signal; outside the 10% proximity flag.
Zone 4 hard action (JPY hedge). 27% traveled through Zone 3. Amber posture already enforced — no adds to TQQQ/IBIT.
Full protocol run before the next scheduled session if: NFP (May, consensus 80K, 14:30 CET today) moves S&P ±2%, oil ±5%, or real yield ±10bps · geopolitical escalation on Hormuz/Gulf · any signal enters the 10% proximity band · ECB June 11 (hike expected — EUR/USD 1.1637, VGK amplify at 1.20).
One email when a new protocol session is published. Nothing else.
[v5-23] Session close confirmed: NO TRADES — positions unchanged, sum 100% · options unchanged (XSP 735/705, $1,800, mid-Jul, 0.76%, acknowledged exception) · no pending orders · regime CHOP holds (audit session — no reclassification; triage values declared with sources, dashboard series carried [STALE] from Jun 2) · [v5-20] nearest amplify: BRL R$0.14 from R$4.90 · nearest break: USD/JPY 5.1 from 165 · no 10% proximity flags · [v5-24] drawdown ~0% vs 30D HWM, BIL 21% vs 15% floor · [v5-27] risk posture: NORMAL · ERROR-009 logged + fixed · IMPLEMENTATION-001 logged · deploy confirmed