The Fed Removed the Cut. Hawkish Hold Confirmed.

Phase 1–2 · Regime Evidence Map · Protocol v5.1

CHOP with a hawkish pivot underneath.

[v5-19] table complete and sourced. Bear test 0/3: VIX ~22, below 25×2 threshold; real yield 2.14%, below 2.50%; Iran de-escalating rather than kinetically confirming. Bull test 0/3: no MOU signed; real yield above 1.80%; VIX above 17. Default-to-Chop governs. The honest read: CHOP with a hawkish tilt — the Fed statement shift tightens the path to Bull conditions. The single most relevant number in the book right now is 2.14%.

The Real Yield Clock is the Primary Risk

DFII10 2.14% via FRED API (not Junglerock's computed figure — ERROR-004 standing rule). The [v5-1] GLD full-exit trigger fires at 2.50% held. Distance: 0.36. The FOMC hawkish pivot removes the tailwind that was capping real yield. If the next CPI or jobs print forces the market to price a 2026 hike, this clock accelerates. It is not triggered. It is the nearest break signal in the book and it is moving in the wrong direction. Watch it every session.

Primary · 9/10 · hold, no adds

Artificial Intelligence

The AI sleeve recovered fully through the stress cycle and is now at ~50% of book by live drift — above the [v5-25] 40% cap. The drift is not a problem per se (the names are performing); the protocol response to drift is blocking adds, not trimming. EWY +46%, SMH +45%, TQQQ +51% from cost. The rally is intact.
The FOMC print hits AI two ways: higher-for-longer rates compress duration-sensitive growth multiples over time, and the 2Y move increases the competition to equities from risk-free rates. Neither fires a trigger today; both narrow the margin of safety in the AI primary sleeve.
[v5-21a] supply read: balanced. HBM constrained, Taiwan exports validating. No glut signal. The structural bear thesis is monitored, not traded.
Contra: AI primary at 50% is the single largest concentration risk. Every add is vetoed by [v5-25] cap AND by JPY Zone 3 independently. The cap does not require trimming — only blocks new risk. That distinction matters: the system says hold, not exit.

Secondary · 6/10 · clock running

USD Debasement / Gold

The FOMC read is directly hostile to this sleeve: removing the easing bias pushes real yields up, and GLD/GDX perform when real yields fall. GLD 394, GDX 87 — both still underwater from cost entries (GLD −12.8%, GDX −10.0% by June 17 marks). The sleeve is held, not added to.
The [v5-1] real yield clock: at 2.14%, the next stop is the 2.50% full-exit trigger. That is 0.36 away — about two meaningful CPI surprises. It has not fired. The clock rule is mechanical: 2.50% held, trim 50% GLD first, full exit next. No discretionary exits before the line.
GLD call: 0/4 factors. Real yield above 1.80% blocks it unconditionally. No options position in this sleeve.
Contra: gold has been resilient — it fell 3% on the FOMC week then recovered. If the peace deal reduces geopolitical bid in gold, the sleeve loses two legs (yield and geopolitical) simultaneously. That scenario doesn't require action now; it requires watching the real yield line.

Monitoring · 5/10 · peace process active

Combat War

Iran peace talks are scheduled Friday in Geneva. The geopolitical tail is narrowing from a hot escalation (June 11's "very hard tonight") toward a diplomatic process. Oil fell through the escalation and has stayed soft — USO 115.17 in the snapshot, down significantly from the cycle highs.
ITA held at 5%, +8.8% from cost. The up-trigger (Brent above $110 × 3) remains far from firing. A peace deal confirms the de-escalation path and puts ITA as a laggard in the portfolio — not a reason to exit, but the defense premium compresses on resolution.
XSP 735/705 residual still held. With a peace deal Friday and the market recovering from the FOMC dip, the [v5-28] monetize gate comes back into view: VIX falling, market above 7,350 long strike, hedge approaching fully OTM. Watch mid-July expiry approach.
Contra: Geneva talks have failed before. Holding the residual through the peace process is not pessimism — it is the protocol's standing rule: the tail hedge was bought for exactly the scenario where headlines reverse.

EXITED · hard trigger · re-entry distant

BRICS & Global South

EWZ exited June 6 (Ibovespa −15.22% hard trigger). BRL R$5.067 — re-entry line R$4.90, still 0.177 away, 3.5% of the band traveled. No mechanical re-entry signal.
FXI 3% held at −6.3% from cost. FXI 33.65 (snapshot). China votes separately from Brazil; copper above $5.50 keeps the structural BRICS signal alive even with the position exit.
No discretionary re-entry. Mechanical only: BRL below R$4.90 or 2/3 fresh basket majority.
Contra: FOMC hawkish hold strengthens the dollar at the margin, which pressures BRL. The re-entry signal may drift further away, not closer.

Tertiary · 5/10 · rate-blocked

Europe / AI Power

VGK 8% held, +4.4% from cost. EUR/USD ~1.132 (snapshot context) — amplify to 10% still requires EUR 1.20, about 0.07 away. ECB's prior hawkish hike is EUR-supportive; the FOMC divergence from Fed (they removed easing, ECB is still hiking) adds a mild EUR tailwind.
CEG 2% at −10.3% from cost. The baseload nuclear thesis is intact but the duration selloff hits CEG mechanically. Adds gated on real yield below 1.80% — that gate fails hard at 2.14% and now the Fed has removed the signal that would have brought yield down.
IBIT 3% at −8.0%. BTC resilient through the stress. Zone 3 JPY blocks adds.
Contra: if the FOMC hawkish shift persists, real yields stay elevated, CEG stays gated, and the AI Power sleeve adds nothing to total return until the rate regime changes. That is a known constraint, not a new risk.

Phase 3 · Portfolio Construction · Verified Marks

Eleven positions, held through FOMC.

No trades this session. Values from the June 17 18:25 UTC snapshot ($234,687.68, +17.34%). AI primary sleeve has drifted to ~50% of book (EWY+SMH+TQQQ+CEG by live value) — above the [v5-25] 40% cap, adds vetoed. BIL live weight ~25%, below the 33% target but above the 15% CHOP floor. Both conditions require hold, not action.

Ticker	Sleeve	Target / Live	P&L	Note
EWY	AI / Tech	15% · $45.8K	+$14,493 (+46.3%)	Largest P&L in book. KOSPI −15% count monitoring. JPY 160 Zone 3, no adds.
SMH	AI / Tech	13% · $39.2K	+$12,187 (+45.1%)	HBM still constrained, Taiwan export validation holds. FOMC rate pressure is multi-quarter, not session.
TQQQ	AI / Tech	7% · $27.6K	+$9,348 (+51.1%)	Trimmed June 6 (VIX Amber). No rebuild — requires Bull sequence AND JPY Zone 1/2 AND real yield below 1.80%.
GLD	Debasement	6% · $10.6K	−$1,561 (−12.8%)	Clock: DFII10 2.14%, 0.36 from full-exit at 2.50%. FOMC hawkish hold tightens the path. Hold, watch the line.
GDX	Debasement	5% · $8.8K	−$984 (−10.0%)	High-beta miners. Will lead on yield reversal, leads on the downside first. No add.
FXI	BRICS / China	3% · $5.6K	−$379 (−6.3%)	Copper $5.50 dual-confirm intact. China votes independently from Brazil. Hold.
VGK	Deglobal.	8% · $16.7K	+$709 (+4.4%)	ECB divergence from Fed is EUR-supportive. Amplify at EUR 1.20, ~0.07 away.
ITA	Defense	5% · $10.5K	+$851 (+8.8%)	Iran peace talks Friday. Up-trigger unconfirmed (Brent <$90). Hold, no add.
IBIT	Alt Monetary	3% · $5.5K	−$480 (−8.0%)	BTC resilient. Zone 3 blocks adds regardless.
BIL	Liquidity	33% tgt · 25% live	+$61 (+0.1%)	Live 25% vs 33% target vs 15% CHOP floor. Drifted as risk assets appreciated. Above the floor — no action required. Redeploy only on a held Bull regime reclaim.
CEG	AI Power	2% · $3.8K	−$432 (−10.3%)	Baseload thesis intact. Add gate: real yield <1.80% — fails at 2.14%, now moving further away post-FOMC.
[OPT] XSP 735/705	Tail Hedge	residual	held	Mid-July expiry. With Iran talks Friday and market recovering from FOMC dip, [v5-28] monetize gate comes back into view. Watch: SPX consistently above 7,350 long strike + VIX compressing = monetize window. No action today.
Total · live marks		$234,688	+$34,688 · +17.34% since inception · AI primary ~50% (over [v5-25] cap) · BIL 25% live · drawdown −2.07% vs HWM

The Recovery from the Trough

The path from the June 10 trough ($216,395, −9.7%) to today's print: June 11 $225K, June 12 $229K, June 15 $237.4K, June 16 $238K — near the $239,644 HWM. Then FOMC day: −$3,314 (−1.4%) on June 17 to $234,688, drawdown back to −2.07%. The book was briefly within $1,600 of its all-time high before the statement dropped. The hawkish pivot added a new constraint — not a new drawdown, but a tighter ceiling on the Bull conditions required to redeploy the BIL cash. That is the honest state of the book entering Friday.

Phase 4 · Risk Framework · Verified [v5-20]

Nearest break: real yield clock.

[v5-20] Distance-to-Line Summary. Nearest break: Real yield DFII10 2.14% → 2.50% GLD exit, 0.36 away (57% of the 0–2.50% band traveled). Nearest amplify: BRL R$5.067 → R$4.90 re-entry, 0.167 away (3.5% of the 5.80–4.90 band). Nothing inside 10% proximity today — real yield is the closest active line and it is not at the 10% gate.

⬇ Break Signals

CLOCKReal Yield 2.14% → 2.50% exit [v5-1]

DFII10 via FRED API (ERROR-004 rule: NOT Junglerock's figure). Distance 0.36. The FOMC removal of the easing bias tightens the path. Next CPI / NFP are the catalysts to watch. Clock running; not triggered.

WatchAI Primary ~50% → [v5-25] cap at 40%

Over the cap, all adds vetoed. Not a trim signal — the protocol requires adds blocked, not positions cut. The distinction is live: holding is permitted, new risk is not.

Zone 3USD/JPY ~160 → Zone 3 TQQQ/IBIT block [v5-2]

Zone 3 (158–165) blocks TQQQ and IBIT adds independently of the AI cap. Overlap: two separate rules, both firing on the same tickers. Zone 4 hard action at 165 — 5 points away.

WatchVIX ~22 · Amber band [v5-16]

VIX 22.23 (VIXY proxy). In the 18–25 Amber band. The FOMC day brought a modest vol uptick. No auto-trim fired (TQQQ already at 7% from June 6). Bear trigger at VIX 25×2 — 3 points away on the spot.

⬆ Amplify Signals

FridayIran peace talks Geneva

If a deal is signed or announced Friday, the Combat War geopolitical premium compresses. ITA Amber signal likely softens; XSP hedge [v5-28] monetize consideration sharpens. Direct regime input only if kinetic activity formally ends.

BRL R$5.067 → R$4.90 re-entry

0.167 away (EWZ [v5-8] amplify line). FOMC dollar strength is a mild headwind to BRL improvement. Monitoring, no action.

BIL 25% live · floor 15%

Still 10 points above the CHOP floor — no mandatory redeploy. Redeploy sequence unlocks only on Bull regime confirmation: MOU signed + real yield below 1.80% + VIX below 17. FOMC raised the bar on all three.

[v5-28] Hedge monetize gate

With SPX recovering and peace talks Friday, the monetize conditions (market above long strike 7,350 + VIX compressing) come into view. Not yet confirmed — needs a consistent close above 7,350 with VIX trending below 20. Watch next session.

Phase 5 · FX & Commodities — Live

Dollar firm. Rates up, metals soft.

USD / JPY

~160

Zone 3 — TQQQ/IBIT blocked

[v5-2] active. Zone 3 (158–165) add block. Zone 4 hard hedge action at 165, ~5 points away. BoJ policy divergence keeps this elevated.

EUR / USD

~1.132

Below VGK amplify 1.20

ECB–Fed divergence mildly EUR-supportive. [v5-6] amplify at 1.20 — 0.07 away. VGK held 8%.

USD / BRL

R$5.067

Re-entry distant — EWZ exited

[v5-8] amplify at R$4.90, 0.167 away. FOMC dollar strength is a mild BRL headwind. No action.

Gold (GLD)

$394.42

Clock: 0.36 from exit

DFII10 2.14% → full exit at 2.50%. GLD −12.8% from cost. Held, not added. The FOMC print tightens the path.

GDX

$87.27

−10.0% from cost

High-beta miners. Silver and gold recovering post-trough but FOMC is a structural headwind. Hold.

WTI Oil (USO)

$115.17

Fell through escalation

Oil fell through the Iran escalation and stayed soft into FOMC. Market is fading the Hormuz tail. ITA up-trigger (Brent $110×3) not in play.

2Y Treasury

+16bps

FOMC catalyst

The largest single-day move this cycle. Reflects the market pricing the removal of easing bias. Real yield uplift flows through to the [v5-1] clock.

VIX

~22.23

Amber band 18–25

FOMC-day uptick, contained. No Bear trigger (25×2). TQQQ already at 7% post-June 6 trim. Watch peace-talk outcome for direction.

The Fed removed
the cut.