First Protocol v5 session. Regime CHOP held — Bull test 1 of 3 (VIX 16.05 only; MOU re-edited and unsigned, real yield 1.99%). Real yield Amber half-response: TQQQ 9→8%, BIL 14→15% (zero-sum). EWZ trim vote failed 1-of-3 (copper $6.56 + BRL stable outvote Ibovespa −13.6%). GLD call deferred (0/3 + Factor-1 veto). Stale SPX 7170/6845 spread cancelled; new spread pending. Samsung strike averted (74% union vote).
US and Iran mostly agreed on 60-day MOU — Trump approval pending. Brent $92.56, -19% in May, worst month since COVID. GLD June call exited ($150 OTM). Real yield trim clock reset. EWZ trimmed 13→11% (Ibovespa -12.8% from ATH). ITA trimmed 8→5%. TQQQ 8→9%. IBIT 2→3%. BIL 9→14%. SK Hynix joins $1T club. S&P at record highs.
SMH P/E collapses 43x→22x post-TSMC beat: valuation gate lifted, SMH raised to 12%. Oil re-spikes to $90-95 as Iran re-closes Hormuz and US Navy seizes vessel. Ceasefire expires April 22. SK Hynix Q1 April 23. BIL 18%→15%. GLD May ATM call held.
TSMC Q1 $35.7B (+35.1% YoY) — all-time record. Brent -13% in 3 days to $94.89. Ceasefire extension under discussion before April 22. BRL breaks below R$5.00 for first time since May 2024. KOSPI +5.7% to ~6,143. ITA trimmed 50% (8% → 4%). SMH May $420C exited per plan. GLD May ATM call opened. Real yield eased to 1.89%.
Islamabad talks collapse. US naval blockade of Hormuz starts April 13. Ceasefire expires April 22. Taiwan March exports: +61.8% YoY (record $80.18B). CPI 3.3% — stagflation signal. AI primary holds; Combat War partially reactivates. ITA raised to 8%, GLD to 12%, EWZ to 12%.
US–Iran ceasefire confirmed. KOSPI +5.64% on the day; SK Hynix breaks ₩1M. Most significant regime rotation since February. AMLP mandatory exit (Henry Hub $2.80). Real yield 1.97% — 3bp from GLD trim trigger. KOSPI recovery is the primary trade. SMH May $420C opened at 9/10 conviction.
Next session — ceasefire April 22 · SK Hynix Q1 April 23
Key watch: TSMC Q1 earnings April 16 · US-Iran ceasefire expiry April 22 · Real yield proximity to 2.0% trim trigger